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An analysis of the first half performance of my fantasy baseball team

Posted by phduffy on 2008-07-17 15:14:44
 

My draft:
1. (2) David Wright 3B
2. (23) Lance Berkman 1B,OF
3. (26) Brandon Phillips 2B
4. (47) CC Sabathia SP
5. (50) Travis Hafner 1B
6. (71) Brian McCann C
7. (74) Francisco Rodríguez RP
8. (95) Jason Bay OF
9. (98) Francisco Cordero RP
10. (119) Matt Kemp OF
11. (122) Rich Hill SP
12. (143) John Maine SP
13. (146) Jhonny Peralta SS
14. (167) Jeremy Bonderman SP
15. (170) Kosuke Fukudome OF
16. (191) Jeremy Hermida OF
17. (194) Randy Johnson SP
18. (215) Adam LaRoche 1B
19. (218) Ty Wigginton 1B,2B,3B
20. (239) Aaron Heilman RP
21. (242) Ryan Doumit C,OF

I thought I’d post a self analysis of how I performed in the first half. I’d be curious on people’s thoughts on either my team, or your own team.
So now that we’re roughly at the halfway point of the season, I thought I’d try to review how my season has gone. What went right, what went wrong, why it happened, etc.

Best Draft Pick
Can a second rounder be a best draft pick? Lance Berkman is performing like a first rounder, so that’s good. Also, K-Rod in the 7th was a great pick – that’s probably about as high as you’d want to draft a closer, but K-Rod has been so good he’s effectively given me two closers (I’d be happy with two closers with 19 saves each), which let me go with only 2 closers, and start to get a good lead in holds. I also like Fukodome in the 15th. And I kind of like Ryan Doumit in the 23rd, except I released him when he was injured and picked him back up, so that’s not quite fair. Jason Bay is also looking good.

Worst Draft Pick
Hafner in the 5th. I think it’s bad news if you have to cut people you picked in the first half of the draft. I also cut Rich Hill who I took in the 11th, Bonderman from the 14th, Hermida in the 16th (although I think this was a reasonable pick and risk to make), LaRoche at 18, Wiggington at 19, Heilman at 20 and Doumit at 21. That’s 8 out of 21 picks I’ve cut. I’ve been able to replace all of them fairly well though, so Hafner’s the only one I really regret. I had him on my ‘warning’ list before the draft, but it seemed like he had fallen far enough to be worth the risk.

Best Waiver Claim
Doumit has put up an OPS over 1.000 for me – I’m not sure how to figure out which part was before I cut him and what he did after I picked him back up, but he’s been on fire since getting off the DL. Joey Votto’s cooled down a bit, but I like him as a free pick up. And of course, my pitching was in shambles at the start of the season, but was fixed by Sabathia putting it together, a few trades, and picking up my middle relievers for free – Linebrink’s ERA is under 2, and Wheeler’s been good for me too. Kuroda hasn’t lit the world on fire or anything, but I’ll take that performance from a starter.

Worst Waiver Claim
My worst handling of the waiver wire was dropping Scott Downs so I could keep Travis Hafner wasn’t great. I’m trying to remember the exact sequence… I think I dropped Downs so I could pick up Richie Weeks after trading away Phillips… then I dropped Hafner days later, and ended up dropping Weeks too. Downs would have been perfect for me, since he still had a couple of saves left in him. Overall not a big deal though, since it looks like BJ’s back in full time closer role. I also used a high waiver pick on Clayton Kershaw, which didn’t work out, but I don’t regret it, that’s what you use the waiver for.

Best Move
The somewhat discussed Keppinger/McCann for Cain/Martinez hasn’t really had much effect on either team. McCann is vastly superior to Martinex, then Martinez got hurt. Keppinger got hurt pretty shortly after the deal, and Cain has helped my pitching staff, but isn’t great. I traded Phillips and Kuroda for Haren and Hall. I’m torn on this deal, since I’ve since dropped Hall, and gave up Kuroda since if I didn’t I’d have to drop a pitcher anyways, so it’s essentially Phillips for Haren. And I wouldn’t do that move at the start of the season, but I was desperate for pitching help, and this has helped me. I also didn’t/don’t have a great backup 2nd basemen. So I guess my best move was the draft and getting a few guys at good values, as well as figuring the appropriate times to cut players versus keeping guys who are just going through a bad week.

Worst Move
I’ve avoided the disaster move, which has helped land me where I am. Other than my bad draft picks, I don’t think there’s any really bad moves, so Hafner in the 5th is the worst move. I don’t even have any of those trades that you offer, get rejected, and then it turns out to be great for you that the other guy rejected it.